Posts Tagged ‘gold’

Normally, I don’t step out and make such bold statements as gold mining supply IS collapsing; however, in this case it seems appropriate. We have reported on several occasions just in the past week, here, here and here how some of the largest mining companies in the world are seeing massive reductions in gold production. While funding continues to flow into mining companies, new discoveries, with few exceptions, are smaller and have much shorter production lifespans.

We recently interviewed (MUST LISTEN) the President/CEO of First Mining Gold, Jeff Swinoga, and his company is on the verge of bringing online one of the largest discoveries in some time. The Springpole project has an inferred 5 million ounces of gold in the ground. While 5 million ounces is a very impressive, and large, discovery the gold market needs about 10-15 more of these to keep pace with the current trend of gold acquisitions by central banks, the top government bullion mints and private bullion mints around the world. The gold discoveries are not manifesting.



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Fundamentally speaking, this is one week is perfect for anybody looking to smash the prices of gold & silver. By Wednesday, we will have the closed door FOMC with no press conference.

There will be a statement release at 2:00 p.m. EST:

Interestingly, the CME Group is only showing about a 1% chance of a rate hike:

And every MSM pundit is fully expecting the Fed to “hold” on 100-125 basis points.

But moving out to December is a whole different story:

Again, looking at CME Group’s probability, it seems there is 100% certainty of a rate “hike” in December. Not only that, but 4.3% even think we could be 50 basis points higher than where we are today on the Fed Funds Rate.

Once we get over the Feds ambiguously nothing-burger, we are not out of the clear:

Friday is one of the key times that the cartel likes to smash. This is because it is Non-farm payrolls Friday. It is the day the BLS Job Report is released showing the employment situation for the prior month. The report is released on the first Friday of the month. This Friday, we will see how many jobs were created in October, 2017.

It will be interesting to see what the “statistics” show, because recall that just last week, we learned that the U.S. grew by a smashing 3% last quarter. If the U.S. is “growing”, one would assume that job creation would be impressive. So fundamentally speaking, we must prepare for the nasty storm that is brewing yet again. Though there is the possibility of a “policy error”.

Two reasons being the President is expected to nominate the next Fed Chair and the House is supposed to release the tax plan.

Then of course there is JFK, North Korea, Russiagate, Russiagate the sequel, geo-politics, Catalonia, and a host of other powder kegs just waiting for a spark.

Though when we look at the charts, silver does not look good right now:

Two things immediately stick out on the chart.

The cartel is desperately trying to turn that 50-day and smash it below the 200-day. That would be a “death cross” and a bearish sign. However, if the end goal is to get the specs to sell their longs so the commercials can cover their shots in this paper game, they better be careful with just how low they whack it because physical supply is always at risk.

And they do need to whack it, because secondly, open interest is not budging. See how cyclically, open interest jumps at the bottom of smashings and then slowly fades as the cartel issues unlimited fraudulent paper?

Well, Open interest has not budged since even before the September 8th smashing. This means on of two things. If open interest is not subsiding, it will fall in one of two ways. Most commonly, there has been a massive flush of the specs on downside price suppression. But seeing as how it has been so long since the flush, it is possible that we could be about to witness a short squeeze as the commercials cover their shorts.

If that happens, open interest would not be falling based on a falling price, but it would be falling based on a rising price as the commercial banks would have to “cover”, as in buy back, the futures contracts they sold short (contracts they just sold without actually having).

Obviously the commercials want to buy back their shorts at lower prices, as that is how the profit is made, and while the process is always the same for smashing price and covering the shorts, with all the potential catalysts for price spikes in the flight to safety, the cartel would certainly need to quell some of that open interest so they can issue new naked-short contracts.

Is this the week of an epic short squeeze?

There is no denying the minefield the cartel is currently blindly walking through.

The chart looks the same in gold:

Gold looks about ready to tap that 200-day on the daily. Recall how important that line is. Ever time we have, even on an intra-day basis, fell through the moving average, we have spend some time down below it. For the same reason that we could see a short squeeze in silver, because of the flight to safety, we would see the same squeeze in gold.

The GSR is still straddling 75-76:

Although at over 75, it is still favoring silver, but movement this week could change things, so we’ll be watching the ratio.

Platinum continues to look downright awful:

The open has yet to drop off significantly, but that “death cross” on the chart could take care of that in little time.

Palladium is holding up the best of all the precious metals:

If palladium drops under the 50-day moving average, one could assume that the open interest would drop off.

Now with the American Palladium Eagle, it will be interesting to see how the cartel attempts to paint the chart on the year’s stand-out performer.

Pretty soon consumers will be paying perhaps significantly more for just about everything:

Since we have been looking at the moving averages and open interest in the metals, we can do the same for crude oil, and it paints a bullish picture for the oil bulls.

Open interest is not out of control, and there has been a “golden cross” on the daily where the 50-day broke through the 200-day to the upside.

Copper has been causing all sorts of problems for analysts, all year long:

Crude looks ready to come down to the 50-day moving average and the last time this happened, Dr Copper just rod the average for some time until the next up-leg.

On the dollar index, we pointed out the “head-and-shoulders” pattern on the DXY:

It looks to still be ready to move on up to 96, but the same with gold and silver, there is so much on the fundamental side that could change things on the quick.

Since the yield on the 10-year is in a “wait-and-see” mode, here’s a term over the long haul:

The Fed sure has done a good job of convincing everybody that interest rates are just slowly moving up.

However, we have said before that it doesn’t seem likely that the Fed can just “gradually” normalize interest rates, especially with an economy firing on on all cylinders in a spectacular “recovery”.

And while the VIX was smashed under 10 last week, it looks to be waking up, yet again:

Finally, well, this:

It’s hard to see how it can just keep on charging higher since it has already been “overbought” as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but then again, if there is going to be a “melt-up” or a “blow-off-top”, then look for a spike even higher on the RSI.

SilverDoctors.com has been on the leading edge of Gold News and Silver News Since 2011. Each month, more than 250,000 investors visit SilverDoctors.com to gain insights on Precious Metals News as well as to stay up-to-date on World News impacting the metals markets.

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Market analyst Lynette Zang says we are headed towards an undemocratic technocratic financial system. Zang explains, “Technocrats don’t care about people, they care about systems. That’s what the most important thing is. The formulas that guide all of those systems is not how a democracy works. . . . Essentially, what they are trying to do is get all wealth held in cyberspace and the title to all wealth held in cyberspace. Then the “Smart Contract” can immediately transfer that title. You can go to the mall and spend the equity in your house.”

Zang warns that central banks could make a big mistake and lose control quickly. Zang says, “They could lose control because it’s all about confidence. Why do they keep testing all of this confidence? People have been losing a lot of confidence in the governments and central banks. Why do they need a trustless system? They could lose control.”

Zang says every fiat currency will reset against gold and silver, and if it happened today, she estimates “gold would be more than $9,300 per ounce” and “silver would be more than $625 per ounce.” Zang says, given all the unpayable debt in the world, those are conservative estimates.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Lynette Zang, Chief Market Analyst at ITMTrading.com.

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After spending three days trading above the price for an ounce of gold, Bitcoin prices crashed overnight – down over $120 in a few short hours – following Bloomberg headlines citing China officials saying that Bitcoin regulation is not temporary.



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Global financial repression picks up steam, led by India. After declaring large denomination notes illegal, India now targets gold.

It’s not just gold bars or bullion. The government has raided houses, no questions asked, confiscating jewelry.

For background to this article, please see my November 27 article Cash Chaos in India, 86% of Money in Circulation Withdrawn; Cash Still King in Japan.

Large denomination means 500-rupee ($7.30) and 1,000-rupee notes ($14.60), which account for more than 85 percent of the money supply. They are no longer legal tender, effective immediately.

As one might imagine, chaos ensued. And it continues.

India Confiscates Gold



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Yesterday morning, when musing on the day’s key event namely Yellen’s congressional testimony, we dismissed the most recent bout of European bank euphoria which we said “will be brief if not validated by concrete actions, because while central banks have the luxury of jawboning, commercial banks are actually burning through funds – rapidly at that – and don’t have the luxury of hoping for the best while doing nothing.” This morning DB has wiped out all of yesterday’s gain.

As for Yellen’s testimony, we said that “she can send stocks reeling with one word out of place” – the word in question being not what she said but what she didn’t say, in this case not being dovish enough and thus supportive enough of risk. And the consequence is there for all to see as soon as their trading terminal boots up: everything is crashing (with the exception of China which is on holiday, and Japan which was mercifully closed yesterday). Here are the highlights:

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.8% to 1814
  • Stoxx 600 down 3.4% to 304
  • FTSE 100 down 2.6% to 5525
  • DAX down 2.9% to 8760
  • German 10Yr yield down 7bps to 0.18%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.1% to 117
  • Hang Seng down 3.8% to 18546
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 4821
  • US 10-yr yield down 5bps to 1.62%
  • Dollar Index down 0.42% to 95.49
  • WTI Crude futures down 2.9% to $26.65
  • Brent Futures down 1.7% to $30.31
  • Gold spot up 1.9% to $1,220
  • Silver spot up 1.5% to $15.50

MORE HERE: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/markets-around-world-are-crashing-gold-soars


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This just in: it turns out that the rumors were right after all. At least part of the reason the US State Dept./CIA staged a coup in Ukraine that overthrew its democratically elected government and installed a neo-Nazi puppet regime was to steal Ukraine’s gold. Rumor had it that shortly after the coup the gold was quietly loaded onto a plane that took it to the US. And now comes the official revelation: Ukraine has no gold reserves left. The gold was sold to pay for a failed military campaign in Eastern Ukraine, and to prop up the fake paper gold market for a little bit longer. One would expect that once the fix is off, the price of gold will skyrocket, the US dollar will drop like a rock, and Americans will need to add the word “hyperinflation” to their list of national woes.


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‘As most Americans, if not the financial media, are aware, Quantitative Easing (a euphemism for printing money) has failed to bring back the US economy.

So why has Japan adopted the policy? Since the heavy duty money printing began in 2013, the Japanese yen has fallen 35% against the US dollar, a big cost for a country dependent on energy imports. Moreover, the Japanese economy has shown no growth in response to the QE stimulus to justify the rising price of imports.

Despite the economy’s lack of response to the stimulus, last month the Bank of Japan announced a 60% increase in quantitative easing–from 50 to 80 trillion yen annually.’

Read more: Price Rigging and Financial Corruption. A Global House Of Cards

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Currency wars are set to escalate as the petro dollar’s decline continues.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and his Iranian counterpart Bijan Zanganeh signed a five-year memorandum of understanding in Moscow, which included cooperation in the oil sector.

“Based on Iran’s proposal, we will participate in arranging shipments of crude oil, including to the Russian market,” Novak was quoted as saying.

The five year accord will see Russia help Iran “organise oil sales” as well as “cooperate in the oil-gas industry, construction of power plants, grids, supply of machinery, consumer goods and agriculture products”, according to a statement by the Energy Ministry in Moscow.

The deal could see Russia buying 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day, the Moscow-based Kommersant newspaper has previously reported. Under the proposed deal Russia would buy up to 500,000 barrels a day or a third of Iranian oil exports in exchange for Russian equipment and goods.

The Russian government withdrew the statement regarding the deal last night, but said it would issue a new statement today.

In January, Russia said that they were negotiating an oil-for-goods swap worth $1.5 billion a month that would enable Iran to lift oil exports substantially to Russia, undermining Western sanctions.

Yesterday, the Russian President told regional leaders that “the political tools of economic pressure are unacceptable and run counter to all norms and rules.” He  said in response to western sanctions he had given orders to boost domestic manufacturers at the expense of non-Russian ones.

The White House has previously said that reports of talks between Russia and Iran were a matter of “serious concern”.

Reserve Currencies In History – Dollar’s Demise Continues

“If the reports are true, such a deal would raise serious concerns as it would be inconsistent with the terms of the agreement with Iran,” Caitlin Hayden, spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, said in January.

  1. S. and European Union sanctions against Russia threaten to hasten a move away from the petro dollar that’s been slowly occurring since the global financial crisis.

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Spot what is missing in the just blasted headline from Bloomberg:


If you said the complete absence of US Dollars anywhere in the funds flow you are correct. Which is precisely what we have been warning would happen the more the West and/or JPMorgan pushed Russia into a USD-free corner.

Once again, from our yesterday comment on the JPM Russian blockade: “what JPM may have just done is launch a preemptive strike which would have the equivalent culmination of a SWIFT blockade of Russia, the same way Iran was neutralized from the Petrodollar and was promptly forced to begin transacting in Rubles, Yuan and, of course, gold in exchange for goods and services either imported or exported. One wonders: is JPM truly that intent in preserving its “pristine” reputation of not transacting with “evil Russians”, that it will gladly light the fuse that takes away Russia’s choice whether or not to depart the petrodollar voluntarily, and makes it a compulsory outcome, which incidentally will merely accelerate the formalization of the Eurasian axis of China, Russia and India?”

In other words, Russia seems perfectly happy to telegraph that it is just as willing to use barter (and “heaven forbid” gold) and shortly other “regional” currencies, as it is to use the US Dollar, hardly the intended outcome of the western blocakde, which appears to have just backfired and further impacted the untouchable status of the Petrodollar.

More from Reuters:

Iran and Russia have made progress towards an oil-for-goods deal sources said would be worth up to $20 billion, which would enable Tehran to boost vital energy exports in defiance of Western sanctions, people familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.


In January Reuters reported Moscow and Tehran were discussing a barter deal that would see Moscow buy up to 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods.


The White House has said such a deal would raise “serious concerns” and would be inconsistent with the nuclear talks between world powers and Iran.


A Russian source said Moscow had “prepared all documents from its side”, adding that completion of a deal was awaiting agreement on what oil price to lock in.


The source said the two sides were looking at a barter arrangement that would see Iranian oil being exchanged for industrial goods including metals and food, but said there was no military equipment involved. The source added that the deal was expected to reach $15 to $20 billion in total and would be done in stages with an initial $6 billion to $8 billion tranche.


The Iranian and Russian governments declined to comment.


Two separate Iranian officials also said the deal was valued at $20 billion. One of the Iranian officials said it would involve exports of around 500,000 barrels a day for two to three years.


“Iran can swap around 300,000 barrels per day via the Caspian Sea and the rest from the (Middle East) Gulf, possibly Bandar Abbas port,” one of the Iranian officials said, referring to one of Iran’s top oil terminals.


“The price (under negotiation) is lower than the international oil price, but not much, and there are few options. But in general, a few dollars lower than the market price.”

Surely an “expert assessment” is in order:

“The deal would ease further pressure on Iran’s battered energy sector and at least partially restore Iran’s access to oil customers with Russian help,” said Mark Dubowitz of Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a U.S. think-tank.


“If Washington can’t stop this deal, it could serve as a signal to other countries that the United States won’t risk major diplomatic disputes at the expense of the sanctions regime,” he added.

You don’t say: another epic geopolitical debacle resulting from what was originally intended to be a demonstration of strength and instead is rapidly turning out into a terminal confirmation of weakness.

Also, when did the “Foundation for Defense of Petrodollar” have the last word replaced with “Democracies”?

Finally, those curious what may happen next, only not to Iran but to Russia, are encouraged to read “From Petrodollar To Petrogold: The US Is Now Trying To Cut Off Iran’s Access To Gold.”

original link

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Weekly Sentiment Report: Is This the End?

Some of our subscribers are still with us from back when I was doing economic post only. Here is a relevant post for you. Thomas

Is the end of the rally that has lifted the markets for the last 5 months? Or is it the just the end of the world as we know it?

TactibalBeta offers Actionable Strategies on gold, equities, Treasury bonds and more.  It is 100% FREE!!

The “Mixed Signals” from 2 weeks ago, which morphed into last week’s clues, must mean something this week as the markets had their worse day in 7 months on Friday. Oh my goodness, did you read that right? I don’t think it means the end of the world as we know it but it might mean the end of the rally. But is it really this bad? If you bought the SP500 around Christmas time or anytime in the new year, your position is underwater just by a little. On the other hand, if you were dumb enough to believe the hype that the “all clear” signal had been sounded, then you deserve to be underwater and have a loss. For that matter, you shouldn’t be playing in the markets at all.

When I get a call from my mother 6 weeks ago about what she should do with the gold fund that had been left to her by my deceased father (and her husband) and if now would be a good time to put it in the stock market, then I know we have a top brewing. (Editor’s note: we kept the gold fund.) Furthermore and as an aside, what is my 80 year old mother doing putting money in the stock market? When I get another call yesterday about the market “tanking”, then I know I shouldn’t worry too much. Yes, my mother used the word “tanking”. “Tanking” could be used (but not really) in the context if you got into the markets 6 weeks ago, and it certainly cannot be used after the 30% run of last year. But let’s be clear. I know my mother isn’t doing her own investing, but I am sure the raging bull market must be the talk of all the retirees at the country club.

I doubt the world will end as we know it (but it could happen), but it is more likely the rally will continue to struggle. This is another way of saying what I have been saying for the last 6 weeks: we are late in the rally and the trend should flatten out. Now we can add underwater investors to the mix. These are the investors who were late to the rally and are now saying to themselves, “Geez, I shouldn’t have bought XYZ stock when Cramer told me so.” Now these folks are worried (because they don’t have a plan), and they will be sellers into any rally. They can’t tolerate even a small loss; they have learned their lesson that the markets are hazardous to their financial health. They want out and will be sellers especially into a rally that trims their losses. This puts a cap to the upside.

This market narrative, whatever it may be, is only starting to play out. There will be both bullish and bearish talk. I saw a bull headline today: “S.KOREA TO HOLD EMERGENCY MEETING ON JAN. 26 TO DISCUSS MARKETS”. The investing mindset remains such that investors belief in the Federal Reserve or other central banks has yet to be shattered. I think that moment is a long ways off, and will coincide with a technical failure in the markets. So what do I mean by this? The markets will sell off at some point in the future and investor sentiment will turn bearish. We will become buyers when everyone else is bearish. The markets will lift like they do 80% of the time under such dynamics, and there might even be an announcement by the Fed that supports the markets and investors beliefs that the Fed has their back. But for whatever reason, the bounce will fail and the markets will move (crash?) lower not only violating those important technical levels that brought in the buyers in the first place but also destroy the notion that the Fed has control. That’s how I see a top in the markets.

For now and the best that I can say is this: after a 5 month bull run, the bears have finally awoke from their slumber, but this is all they have done. Our equity model, which is based upon the “dumb money” indicator in figure 2 (below), remains bullish. A bear signal will register 1 week after investor sentiment rolls over. This has not happened yet.

Lastly and let me be clear about what I do. I don’t need to make forecasts to profit from the markets. I am very cognizant of where we are on the playing field. We are late in the rally, and valuations, which are a poor timing tool, would suggest that we are late in this cyclical bear. (You should note I said “cyclical” not “secular” bear.) But this has little to do with getting in and out of the markets profitably and with limiting your risk. We have been bullish for 20 weeks now when we became bullish during a period of extreme investor bearishness. The current trade is “long in the tooth” as the average trade goes on for 15 weeks. I have been saying this for weeks: “We are in the late stages of the rally. The best, most accelerated gains typically occur in the beginning of the trade. Just when investors typically get the all clear, the trend will flatten out.” So why not get out now? Because that is not how I do it, and you just never know. Our exit is the “best” exit of the many types of exits we have tested. As a reminder, we have moved our stop loss up to SP500 1706.92.

The Sentimeter

Figure 1 is our composite sentiment indicator. This is the data behind the “Sentimeter”. This is our most comprehensive equity market sentiment indicator, and it is constructed from 10 different variables that assess investor sentiment and behavior. It utilizes opinion data (i.e., Investors Intelligence) as well as asset data and money flows (i.e., Rydex and insider buying). The indicator goes back to 2004. (Editor’s note: Subscribers to the TacticalBeta Gold Service have this data available for download.) This composite sentiment indicator moved to its most extreme position 10 weeks ago, and prior extremes since the 2009 are noted with the pink vertical bars. The March, 2010, February, 2011, and February, 2012 signals were spot on — warning of a market top. The November, 2010 and December, 2012 signals were failures in the sense that prices continued significantly higher. The current reading is neutral but heading towards bearish (as in too many bullish investors).

Figure 1. The Sentimeter



Dumb Money/ Smart Money

The “Dumb Money” indicator (see figure 2) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. The indicator shows that investors are extremely bullish.

Figure 2. The “Dumb Money”


Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the SP500 with the InsiderScore “entire market” value in the lower panel. From the InsiderScore weekly report: “Market-wide sentiment continues to move further into Neutral territory, away from a Sell Bias, as transactional volume continues a seasonal decline. With earnings season beginning shortly, most companies have closed trading windows, limiting the ability of insiders to transact non-10b5-1 purchases and sales.”

Figure 3. InsiderScore “Entire Market” value/ weekly



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Gold Hammering Leads To Another Overnight Gold Market Halt

Shortly after 1amET this morning, someone with no apparent fiduciary duty to their client’s for best execution or any apparent trade allocation expertise decided it was time to dump 1500 contracts into an entirely illiquid gold futures market. The 150,000 ounce notional sell order ($184.5 million), captured graphically by Nanex, sent the price down $10 instaneously, tripped the exchange’s circuit breakers and halted the market’s trading for 20 seconds (once again). This is now the 4th market halt in the past 3 months (and this time on no news whatsoever), as the manipulative monkey-hammerings from who knows whom (BIS?) is becoming increasingly obvious.

Via Nanex,

This sort of thing is happening far too often: see also the drops on April 12, 2013,  September 12, 2013, October 11, 2013 and November 20, 2013 which also resulted in trading halts.

1. December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Trades.

2. December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Trades – Zoom 1.

3. December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Trades – Zoom 2.
The 20 second halt shows up clearly.

4. December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Depth of Book (how to read).

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1 oz (Troy ounce) of fine gold - detail

Shanghai Gold, Silver Volumes Surge To Records and Premiums Rise As Night Trading Begins

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,275.00, EUR 976.79 and GBP 842.70 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,280.75, EUR 981.87 and GBP 848.91 per ounce.

Gold rose $34.30 or 2.74% yesterday and closed at $1,285.40/oz. Silver surged $1.03 or 5.38% and closed at $20.18.

Gold in USD – 1 Week – (Bloomberg)

Gold is marginally lower today, but is up 3.8% this
week and on track for its biggest weekly gain since October 2011. There
has been a realisation that ultra loose monetary policies are set to
continue reigniting bullion’s appeal as an important diversification.

Indian gold demand fell sharply and was down 70% in
June from May. The Indian government’s taxes and capital controls have
had the desired effect in the short term but at what cost and how
sustainable will their measures be?

China continues to be the elephant in the room which is being ignored
by the gold bears and Chinese gold demand continues at record levels
and is compensating for the sharp fall in Indian demand.

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Gold Feet

Gold Feet (Photo credit: @Doug88888)

Gold Drops Below Its Average Cash Cost

As shown two months ago, the marginal cost of production of gold (90% percentile) in 2013 was estimated at $1300 including capex. Which means that as of a few days ago, gold is now trading well below not only the cash cost, but is rapidly approaching the marginal cash cost of $1104…

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